How's everyone doing? Hopefully the weeks between the French Open and Wimbledon didn't do anyone harm. Realized there were some upsets in there and that's once again due to player's not wanting to go all out and jeopardize their big payday at Wimbledon. I was surprised when I saw that Federer was the favorite here this year but then after I dug a bit deeper I realized why that was the case. The public thinks Federer is back and ready to win since he beat Djokovic at the French Open and I agree that it is possible but I just...

How's everyone doing? Hopefully you guys have all signed up for the SBR French Open contest. I just completed the men's portion of the tournament and am pretty much exhausted from that so I am not going to be doing much of a write-up for this French Open. I've already got two men's outrights locked in for the French Open but the women's draw is just so wide open that I have decided to pass on a women's outright all together.

[B]Men's outright[/B]

[B]Nadal +110[/B]

The one good thing about Djokovic beating down Nadal the last month is that Rafa's outright odd's for...

Was looking at the women's draw and there are basically 15 player's that I wouldn't be surprised if they won. What does this mean? Means there is some great value in the outright markets. 

Wozniacki's quarter

Factor in Wozniacki's current form and her racquet change and people are quick to discount her at this tournament. She has a pretty difficult draw which starts out with Dulko, who is capable of pulling off a big upset, Paszek, Cibulkova, Bartoli, Henin, Sharapova/Azarenka and Stosur/Clijsters/Zvonareva in the final. With women's tennis upsets happen all of the time so to think Wozniacki would have to play all of these good players is a bit of a stretch. With that being said, +817 odds (+950 on Betfair) are completely unbelievable. The number 1 seed (though debatable), getting +817 odds to win a tournament, sign me up. I admit that I am really scared about the back end of her draw but I think it's worth a shot at these odds. Henin looks to be in good form and will be difficult to defeat for Wozniacki in the quarterfinals. You can currently find odds of approximately +500 on Henin to win this tournament and really that is another unbelievable price.Taking two players from the same quarter to win a tournament is probably not the best of ideas so I am going to go with Wozniacki since she has a nicer price. I really think you can't go wrong taking either her or Henin here though.Both great plays.

Masha/Venus/Azarenka quarter

This is Venus William's last season and she is already showing that she is on the decline. She has lost 3 matches in a row going back to last year and is considered a longshot here as per her +2473 outright odds. Looking at her draw though it really isn't that bad. She is facing Errani, Zahlavova, Petkovic and Masha to get to the quarterfinals. In her current form that is probably a stretch for her to get this far but she is a fighter and can never be counted out. I do lean on Sharapova to beat Venus if they both make it to the fourth round though and Sharapova's outright odds of +1958 are also very good. Try to steer clear of Azarenka in this quarter of the draw since she tends to have some dodgy matches, especially when she is a big favorite. I like Sharapova to get out of this portion of the draw and at odds of +1958 to win it all, she should never be counted out. If you bet on her though,make sure not to watch her matches though because she will give you a heart attack since she likes to spray the ball all over the place.

Clijsters quarter

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Former number 1, though it wasn't deserved, Jelena Jankovic has lost 6 matches in a row and 8 of her last 10. Avoid her like the plague. She might be good fade material going forward in this tournament, if she can get out of the first round that is. Look to fade her if she is ever a big favorite. Clijsters has a very nice draw here which is the reason she is +231 as an outright. I like to get more bang for my buck with my outright selections so based on price alone I will not be taking her but she is the favorite here. She has a player who is totally shot in Safina in the first round and then Martinez Sanchez, Ivanovic/Petrova (Petrova and Ivanovic are both banged up coming into this tournament so they can be ignored at this point), Kleybanova/Jankovic in the quarterfinals and then either Stosur or Zvonareva in the semi's. Radwanska has some injury concerns coming into this tournament so that is why I have brushed over her in this part of the draw. Clijsters should have no problems making it to the semifinals of this tournament and of course, she has a great shot of winning it all. A nice dark horse in this part of the draw would be Kleybanova at around +7218 but I am going to pass on her because I have taken some shots with her before only to be disappointed. 

Stosur/Zvonareva quarter

I like this quarter alot. Since I am passing on Clijsters as an outright I definately looking to this quarter of the draw to get a nice juicy outright. Stosur, Zvonareva and Kvitova all have a very good shot of coming out of this portion of the draw. Zvonareva has got to back to back slam finals but she lost both of them. Is she due?Possibly. Not going to be easy though. She has Safarova and Kirilenko standing in teh way of the quarterfinals for her. Both players are beatable. In the quarters she will face either Stosur or Kvitova. This is where it gets interesting. I am really torn at this part of the tournament and I can really be talked into any of the three players to get to the semifinals. Kvitova has a very nice outright price of +5388 but for some reason I just have a very strong gut feeling about Stosur here. Stosur will have the home crowd behind her and the question is, will that be something that helps her and propels her deep into this tournament OR will the home crowd carry with it to much expectations for Stosur and cause her to crumble under the pressure. Very tough call. I like Zvonareva ALOT here but I have to go with my gut and take Stosur at +1426 and hope for the best. You can't go wrong taking either of these players at this point.

Women's outright plays

Stosur +1426
Wozniacki +817

Best of luck guys.Should be a very interesting women's tournament this year

Another year and another Aussie Open. It's been awhile since I made a tennis thread so I figured that this was as good of a time as any to get back into the groove. I was considering adding on to my previous Aussie Open thread which had 56 million posts in it from Fisch and Smitch saying things such as "hey" "good job" "Can't wait for the next one"........but I figured it would probably be best to start a brand new one. Feel free to point dump in this thread as well.It's all good.

To the tennis.........

I'll start off as always...

Couldn't believe this. The bets were settled last night after the game and I wake up today and have an email this afternoon telling me that my bets on the Giants game have been voided. As those of you know who were live betting on [url="www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/matchbook/"]Matchbook[/url] last night the site was up and down at various points last night but I bet the Giants at +215 ML when the site had come back up for the first time and the Giants were still losing the game. This live line was comparable to the line that was offered at Pinnacle at...

Couldn't believe this. The bets were settled last night after the game and I wake up today and have an email this afternoon telling me that my bets on the Giants game have been voided. As those of you know who were live betting on matchbook last night the site was up and down at various points last night but I bet the Giants at +215 ML when the site had come back up for the first time and the Giants were still losing the game. This live line was comparable to the line that was offered at Pinnacle at...

It feels like it has been a very long time but it's great to be back posting again in the tennis forum. It's good to see that most of the regulars were having some success with the masters series events since Wimbledon. I made a couple of bets here and there on those events but haven't really bet much tennis since Wimbledon. With the amount of upsets that I have seen lately though I am considering the lack of tennis betting a blessing. Would have been costly.

I've gone through the men's bracket for the US Open and noticed that there...

Seems like the French Open just finished and right away we are right back into things with Wimbledon. Should be a great tournament. From a quick look at the men's draw it seems that if you want to bet Federer or Nadal outright's for this tournament that there is little to no value. As always I will seperate the draw into quarters and analyze each section.

[B]Federer's quarter[/B]

Federer pretty much has a cake walk until he reaches the quarterfinals. In the quarters Federer will likely face Berdych or Davydenko. I don't really trust Davy at this point...... haha I should probably...

Seems like the French Open just finished and right away we are right back into things with Wimbledon. Should be a great tournament. From a quick look at the men's draw it seems that if you want to bet Federer or Nadal outright's for this tournament that there is little to no value. As always I will seperate the draw into quarters and analyze each section.

Federer's quarter

Federer pretty much has a cake walk until he reaches the quarterfinals. In the quarters Federer will likely face Berdych or Davydenko. I don't really trust Davy at this point...... haha I should probably say that I never trust Davy at any point really but he is not to far removed from an injury so I am going to guess that Berdych will be the one facing Federer in the quarters. Berdych is good on grass so he should be able to put up a good fight in this match but Federer has owned Berdych in their career head to head at a record of 8-2. Four of those matches are in a slam and Roger won all four. Definately have to side with Federer to win this match and get to the semifinals. 


Roddick's quarter

Roddick's path to the semifinals is alot harder the Federer's. Roddick will have to face Cilic in the third round, which is definately no easy task. Since Marin is inconsistant as always I am going to guess that he will be OFF on that day and Roddick should be able to get to the quarterfinals where he will face either Djokovic or Hewitt. Really at this point you can't depend on Djokovic, especially in these best of five set matches because they seem to take a toll on him physically. Hewitt isn't the sign of health either in recent years so I am not to confident about him either. Novak is 3-1 career vs Hewitt and will probably beat Hewitt to make it to the quarterfinals but it definately will be a tight match since Hewitt is coming in with tons of confidence from winning Halle. Monfils is in this quarter of the draw but his fitness makes him always a no play in a major. Djokovic/Roddick in the quarters is really a toss up to me. The reason why I am not to concerned about it though is the fact that the winner of the match will have to play Roger in the semifinals and I think Roger Federer will win that match to make it to the finals. Djokovic is 5-9 career vs Federer and we all know that Roger has dominated Roddick throught their careers so Federer making it to the finals seems like the play. Unfortunately Federer's outrights are at +140 and that is really not a price that I want to bet. Would like to get some more return from a Federer outright, especially since he has looked more beatable lately. 


Tsonga/Murray quarter

Yikes. This is a tough quarter. Verdasco and Tsonga should both make it to the fourth round where they will meet eachother. Tsonga hasn't played since his withdrawl in the French Open so his fitness could be the issue here. Verdasco has won both of the meetings between the two so you have to favor Verdasco in the match, especially if Tsonga could be possibly injured. The winner of the match will likely face the winner of Murray and Querrey in the quarterfinals. I always have Querrey to go far in the draws that I make up and it seems that he always lets me down. With that being said, if he faces Murray in the fourth round I am going to have to side with Murray there. In the quarterfinals Murray will face the winner of the Tsonga/Verdasco match. I am banking on the winner of the Verdasco/Tsonga match to be exhausted from a potential four or five set match and I am hoping Murray will use that,plus the crowd to win the match and get to the semifinals here at Wimbledon. His outright price to win it all is +950 and I think that is a great price for him. It is definately worth a shot.

Nadal's quarter

I am going to be really happy in the third round when Nadal will face Gulbis and beat him down. I can't stand Gulbis and I have always thought he was overrated but it seemed like everyone jumped on the Gulbis train during the clay season and hopefully the train has derailed with his pitiful showing in the French Open.....oh ya...he was "injured" I forgot. Whether injured or not, Nadal will beat him here in the third round and will face either Youzhny or Isner in the fourth round. The two have faced once with Youzhny winning the match. I really don't know which way to go in that match but I think Nadal will beat either of them in the fourth round so it won't really matter. This will set up a quarterfinal match with Nadal's buddy Soderling, Ferrer or Baghdatis. Baghdatis and Ferrer are pretty much a toss up. Whoever wins their third round match will probably lose to Soderling so I am expecting Robin to face Rafa in the quarterfinals. Rafa will be forever motivated to beat down Soderling so I think it will happen again here. This sets up a semifinal match between Nadal and Murray. Since Nadal's may have possible injury concerns coming into this tournament I may take a chance here and go with Murray. He definately has better value then Nadal as an outright.


Men's outright for Wimbledon

Andy Murray +950


Here's hoping Murray steps up and finally wins a major with the british crowd behind him. I still think the final will be Nadal and Federer but this will make the tournament a bit more interesting. No real value in +140 or +295 for Federer and Nadal. 

Will be back tomorrow with an outright from the women's draw.

I look forward to talking tennis with everyone once again. Hope monday gets here fast.

Another year, another French Open win for Nadal. I know last year Soderling took out an injured Nadal but when you look at Rafa's clay numbers over his career ( 123-4 since 2006) you realize that your are basically gambling on whether or not Nadal is healthy. The outright for Nadal opened up on most books at around -150 and has climbed up to approximately -240 now for Nadal to win. Of course the main reason for this is that Rafa has been his typical amazing self on clay this season and looks to be a lock to win the French Open to cap off the clay court season once again.

  Eventhough I feel that this tournament only has one winner, I have still broken down the draw into four sections and will analyze each of them below.

 

Roger Federer's Quarter  

 

As history has shown us time and time again, we know that we can count on Roger Federer when it matter's, in slams. Roger has made the final of the French Open for the last four years. His current outright odds are fairly decent at +520 so if you are looking for some value as far as an outright then getting the best player in the world at +520 odds is really not to bad. Standing between Roger and the final are Luczak, Fallas, Lopez, Monfils/Wawrinka, Soderling/Cilic and possibly Murray or Tsonga. In a best of five match I will take my chances with Roger against any of these players thats I have mentioned.   Also in Federer's draw are Wawrinka, Monfils, Gulbis, Cilic and Soderling. Robin Soderling played great here last year to make it to the final but he is coming into this tournament having lost 4 of his last 5 matches. He will have to face a very good clay court player in the third round in Montanes and that should be a difficult match for Robin. If he wins that match he will then have to face the winner of the Cilic/Gulbis match which is basically a toss up. The bottom line though is that no matter which of these three player's makes it to the quarterfinals they will not be able to beat Federer to get to the semifinals.   I think this portion of the draw will be won by Roger Federer.  

 

  Murray,Isner,Tsonga Quarter  

 

This portion of the draw is really a complete toss-up. There are probably eight players in this quarter that I could see making it to the semifinals and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them did. Andy Murray, the highest ranked seed in this quarter, could win this portion of the draw but the funny thing is that he can also lose in the first round and I wouldn't be surprised. He has probably the hardest first round match of any of the player's in this tournament facing Richard Gasquet. If Murray is able to win that match he will then have to face Juan Ignacio Chela who is a fairly good clay court player. If Murray is able to get past those two matches he will then have to face Baghdatis and then the winner of the Berdych/Isner match. As you can see Murray's round to the semifinals is one of the hardest in this tournament and I am not sure if he will be able to make it there. Also in this draw is Tsonga and I am really scared about what to think of him here. He had to retire during his last match due to a back problem. He has had time to rest since then but the main concern is how will his back be if he has to play best of five matches every second day for two weeks. With that in mind it is hard to pencil in Tsonga for a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open. A potential upset could be Garcia-Lopez in the third round or possibly Youzhny knocking off Tsonga if he gets to the fourth round.   Two other possibilities from this portion of the draw are Berdych and Isner. Berdych had some injury issues that forced him to withdraw from a Masters event a couple weeks ago but he seems to be ok having played Dusseldorf recently. He will likely face Isner in the third round and that will be an interesting match. They have met once in their careers and that was last year with Isner winning in three sets. I have concerns with Isner's fitness during Grand Slams. He tends to play some long matches and I am not really sure if he has the fitness to go deep in a slam, especially the French Open.   This draw is a complete toss up. I think I am going to go with Murray and Youzhny making it to the quarterfinals with Murray advancing to the semifinals to face Roger Federer. I really have no confidence in that at all but I just have a feeling that Tsonga will be knocked out fairly early in this tournament and that could open the door for Murray to get far here.

 

Roddick,Djokovic Quarter

 

  Andy Roddick's lack of clay court mathces leading up to this tournament really has me concerned. In the third round Roddick might have to face Juan Monaco and that could be a very tough test for Roddick. He may be able to beat Juan Monaco in a hard match but if he does that means he will likely face David Ferrer in the next round and I think that is where Roddick's tournament will end. Ferrer is just to good on this surface and has been on fire coming into this tournament. The only thing that worries me about Ferrer is that he has played way to much tennis coming into this event. I think that lack of rest will catch up to Ferrer by the quarterfinals where he will likely face Djokovic.   I usually take Djokovic as an outright in most of the tournaments but he has mostly been a disappointment. He always seems to have some type of injury during the Grand Slams and he isn't coming into this match in the greatest of shape having lost two of his last three matches. In the fourth round Djokovic will face the winner of Querrey and Juan Carlos Ferrero. If Djokovic wins this match and advances deep in this tournament it will definitely not be a smooth ride. I think he wins this quarter of the draw but David Ferrer could come up big and possibly make the semifinals here.       

 

Nadal's Quarter  

 

Nadal's draw to the semifinals looks to be very easy for him. He will have to face Zeballos, Hewitt, Bellucci and then possibly Verdasco. I have a feeling that Verdasco is going to be knocked out early in this tournament. He is playing way to much tennis lately and for some reason is even playing the tournament this week which concludes on the eve of opening day at the French Open. I have been reading that Verdasco has a possible arm injury and playing these long matches will definately cause his arm problems. Regardless of whether or not Verdasco does anything in this tournament this quarter of the bracket is Nadal's and it doesn't really matter who else is in it.  

 

There should be some good tennis the next two weeks but I feel the end result will once again be a Nadal/Federer final with Nadal winning the French Open.   Best of luck the next two weeks guys